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So much more than Random Thoughts


_Laurie_
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When you choose a door at the beginning you have a chance of 1/3 of getting the right one, 2/3 that it's one of the other two.

Then the gameshow host opens a wrong one from the two you didn't take, which basically culminates the probabilities of both doors to one, so that THAT door is the right one with a chance of 2/3.

...does that make sense? ;)

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Huh? If the gameshow host already knows...opens 1 door...then unless you change your mind...Isn't it 50/50? :confused:

no, that's exactly what's not the case (and that's why this example got its own name :D )

we can count the possibilities to make it more clear... say we have doors A, B and C, the car is behind A

1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose)

2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win

3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again

... so with a probability of 2/3 switching the door will lead you to victory :)

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tbh, I only really understood it after I was told to think it out not with three, but with 100 doors.

You get to choose one out of one hundred, then the host opens 98 wrong doors, so the only ones left are the one you've chosen and one other one - would you switch now? ;)

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Perhaps this may simplify further: the host must open a door which does not contain the car in order to discount one of them. He could not pick the door you have selected, or the game is over. He also cannot pick the door behind which sits the car. Had the car been behind door #3, he would have disclosed the goat behind #2. Since that did not happen, there is a 2/3rds probability that the car is behind #2. Of course there remains a 1/3rd probability that you, as contestant, picked correctly.

But I have learned that, even against the odds, going with my initial gut feeling gets good results about 2/3rds of the time, as well. So, I would stay with Door #1. ;)

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no, that's exactly what's not the case (and that's why this example got its own name :D )

we can count the possibilities to make it more clear... say we have doors A, B and C, the car is behind A

1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose)

2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win

3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again

... so with a probability of 2/3 switching the door will lead you to victory :)

What if in the 2nd and 3rd options, you decide not to switch and lose again, or does this example mean you must switch from your initial guesses? :beatnik:

1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose)

2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win

3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again

4th option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to not switch (and win)

5th option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you decide not to switch (and lose)

6th option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you don't switch to A and lose again

Where is the fallacy in this line of thinking?

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I guess things do even out. I read somewhere that North America was experiencing its hottest summer in many years. Well, Brazil is having its coldest winter in 40 years, as I type.

Of course the equatorial areas are uneffected, but to the southern third of the nation, the effect is pronounced! Snow is normally rare anywhere in Brazil, but this year the two southernmost states have had multiple occasions of snowfall!

This cold winter is exacerbated by the fact that heat is not built into most buildings, in the city where I live. I am sitting in my office wearing 4 layers of shirts and coat, wearing a stocking cap .... brrr!

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Updated: 11 sec ago

Scattered Clouds

92.3 °F / 33.5 °C

Humidity: 67%

Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C

Wind: 2.9 mph / 4 km/h Variable

Wind Gust: 7.2 mph / 11 km/h

Pressure: 29.67 in / 1004.6 hPa (Falling)

Heat Index: 110 °F / 43 °C

Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers

UV: 9 out of 16

Pollen: 6.90 out of 12

Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3200 ft / 975 m (Above Ground Level)

Elevation: 935 ft / 284 m

That's the weather in my area right now. Nothing like a heat index of 110 to get the blood pumping.

Also, I posted this in the Cool Links and Sites thread but got no response -- if any of you want tropical or beachy pictures to put as your computer wallpaper, I found a really nice site to snag them (and they come in various sizes, depending on your screen resolution) --> http://www.beach-backgrounds.com

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Some terrible tragedies have happened to a few people close to me this past week. It's at times like this when I realize how lucky and blessed I am, even when I start to feel sorry for myself about random crap that doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

Do me a favor and go hug someone. Tell someone important to you that you love them. This is coming from the not seen too often Sincere Mama Peaches, not the usual 13% Creepy Mama Peaches.

(((((Songfactors))))) Love y'all. Mean it.

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