TheLizard Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 Yes, but I forget why. Some weird statistics stuff that didn't really make practical sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious_Peaches Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 *&^% statistics. :beady: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farin Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 believe it or not, when you switch your choice you have a 2/3 chance of winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLizard Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 Right, I remember that, but I forget the reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farin Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 When you choose a door at the beginning you have a chance of 1/3 of getting the right one, 2/3 that it's one of the other two. Then the gameshow host opens a wrong one from the two you didn't take, which basically culminates the probabilities of both doors to one, so that THAT door is the right one with a chance of 2/3. ...does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chutzpah Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 Huh? If the gameshow host already knows...opens 1 door...then unless you change your mind...Isn't it 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farin Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 Huh? If the gameshow host already knows...opens 1 door...then unless you change your mind...Isn't it 50/50? no, that's exactly what's not the case (and that's why this example got its own name ) we can count the possibilities to make it more clear... say we have doors A, B and C, the car is behind A 1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose) 2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win 3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again ... so with a probability of 2/3 switching the door will lead you to victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chutzpah Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 Ahhh,ok...I was never good at math...but that sort of makes sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farin Posted July 29, 2010 Report Share Posted July 29, 2010 tbh, I only really understood it after I was told to think it out not with three, but with 100 doors. You get to choose one out of one hundred, then the host opens 98 wrong doors, so the only ones left are the one you've chosen and one other one - would you switch now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steel2Velvet Posted August 1, 2010 Report Share Posted August 1, 2010 Perhaps this may simplify further: the host must open a door which does not contain the car in order to discount one of them. He could not pick the door you have selected, or the game is over. He also cannot pick the door behind which sits the car. Had the car been behind door #3, he would have disclosed the goat behind #2. Since that did not happen, there is a 2/3rds probability that the car is behind #2. Of course there remains a 1/3rd probability that you, as contestant, picked correctly. But I have learned that, even against the odds, going with my initial gut feeling gets good results about 2/3rds of the time, as well. So, I would stay with Door #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ombre Vivante Posted August 1, 2010 Report Share Posted August 1, 2010 no, that's exactly what's not the case (and that's why this example got its own name ) we can count the possibilities to make it more clear... say we have doors A, B and C, the car is behind A 1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose) 2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win 3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again ... so with a probability of 2/3 switching the door will lead you to victory What if in the 2nd and 3rd options, you decide not to switch and lose again, or does this example mean you must switch from your initial guesses? 1st option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to switch (and lose) 2nd option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you switch to A and win 3rd option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you switch to A and win again 4th option: you take door A at the beginning, the host opens one of the others, you decide to not switch (and win) 5th option: you take door B, host opens - HAS to open - door C, you decide not to switch (and lose) 6th option: you take door C, host has to open door B, you don't switch to A and lose again Where is the fallacy in this line of thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ombre Vivante Posted August 1, 2010 Report Share Posted August 1, 2010 Wait... I didn't read the whole thing. Switching doors increases the chances of winning. Duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steel2Velvet Posted August 5, 2010 Report Share Posted August 5, 2010 I guess things do even out. I read somewhere that North America was experiencing its hottest summer in many years. Well, Brazil is having its coldest winter in 40 years, as I type. Of course the equatorial areas are uneffected, but to the southern third of the nation, the effect is pronounced! Snow is normally rare anywhere in Brazil, but this year the two southernmost states have had multiple occasions of snowfall! This cold winter is exacerbated by the fact that heat is not built into most buildings, in the city where I live. I am sitting in my office wearing 4 layers of shirts and coat, wearing a stocking cap .... brrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chutzpah Posted August 5, 2010 Report Share Posted August 5, 2010 Here in Texas it's 100 or above...everyday...no rain and no breeze and 80% humidity...I hate going outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lea Posted August 5, 2010 Report Share Posted August 5, 2010 It's been rather cool here in Oregon most days. We've decided we're not having summer this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkstones Posted August 5, 2010 Report Share Posted August 5, 2010 Updated: 11 sec ago Scattered Clouds 92.3 °F / 33.5 °C Humidity: 67% Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C Wind: 2.9 mph / 4 km/h Variable Wind Gust: 7.2 mph / 11 km/h Pressure: 29.67 in / 1004.6 hPa (Falling) Heat Index: 110 °F / 43 °C Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers UV: 9 out of 16 Pollen: 6.90 out of 12 Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3200 ft / 975 m (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 935 ft / 284 m That's the weather in my area right now. Nothing like a heat index of 110 to get the blood pumping. Also, I posted this in the Cool Links and Sites thread but got no response -- if any of you want tropical or beachy pictures to put as your computer wallpaper, I found a really nice site to snag them (and they come in various sizes, depending on your screen resolution) --> http://www.beach-backgrounds.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Joe Posted August 6, 2010 Report Share Posted August 6, 2010 PS..nice site. Your avatar was my wallpaper for about 5 years before my grandchildren came along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viaene Posted August 6, 2010 Report Share Posted August 6, 2010 Random thought about organized crime: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyRaccoon Posted August 7, 2010 Report Share Posted August 7, 2010 The Avett Brothers are coming to the Pier Six Pavilion in Baltimore in October. I reallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreally want to see them x1235364567578553234136.556 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious_Peaches Posted August 9, 2010 Report Share Posted August 9, 2010 Some terrible tragedies have happened to a few people close to me this past week. It's at times like this when I realize how lucky and blessed I am, even when I start to feel sorry for myself about random crap that doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Do me a favor and go hug someone. Tell someone important to you that you love them. This is coming from the not seen too often Sincere Mama Peaches, not the usual 13% Creepy Mama Peaches. (((((Songfactors))))) Love y'all. Mean it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluesky Posted August 9, 2010 Report Share Posted August 9, 2010 I think you should get to 15% creepy so you can advertise yourself : "Mama Peaches. Now 2% creepier." Joking aside, I adore you. When you're sad, I'm sad. When you're hungry, I eat bacon. I'm fat but happy, because I have a hetero life partner like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Posted August 9, 2010 Report Share Posted August 9, 2010 Do me a favor and go hug someone. Bluesy says tell you thanks. We love you too doll, even the creepy 13%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edna Posted August 9, 2010 Report Share Posted August 9, 2010 I love love love the 100% of my sweet&maravillosa Melocotones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyRaccoon Posted August 10, 2010 Report Share Posted August 10, 2010 A few random thoughts: 1. "Sigh No More" by Mumford & Sons is still in the top 10 albums on iTunes. That makes me happy. 2. TP, I had never noticed your signature before. But I love it. 3. Farin, you should be pleased to know that I am now an I Am Kloot fan. Any album recommendations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farin Posted August 10, 2010 Report Share Posted August 10, 2010 3. Farin, you should be pleased to know that I am now an I Am Kloot fan. Any album recommendations? I'm pleased Natural History and I Am Kloot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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